Wii: ‘Analyzing the Analysts’: Thoughts on the Wii
Games * Design * Art * Culture has some thoughts up on remarks by analysts and their real world validity. Not being prone to getting out scratch pads of paper and theorizing on topics I am ill-equipped to deal with, I'm not sure if the analysis of the analysis is valid, but it's a reminder that quoting experts is fun, but not always an accurate prediction of what is to come. In this case, the topic is an analyst "saying publishers will flock to the Wii because of 'favorable economics'"; the argument here is that it's not 'favorable economics,' but sheer numbers of users that will determine the success of the Wii over the long term.
... The real thing publishers look at when deciding what to develop for is simply user base plus tie ratio--that is, how many boxes each manufacturer ships, and how many titles the average user buys for that box. This, and not a putative cost advantage for Wii over other platforms, is what's working in Wii's favor at the moment--it's selling better than its competitors .... I expect there will be a flood of third-party games for Wii, that the advantage PS 2 and Xbox had over GameCube in this regard will not be true for the current generation: the tie ratios will look much more similar.
It's a short but interesting look at the potential costs and factors going into developing a game and a successful console overall.
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